After the late March passage of the CARES Act, shares went on a tear even because the financial system plummeted. However that run is over: The S&P 500 Index has declined practically 10% since its peak at 3,580 factors on Sept. 2.
Is that this only a momentary setback, after a spring and summer time of giant features, or the beginning of an even bigger pullback? The place can buyers nonetheless discover upside—and what shares are they avoiding?
To search out out, Fortune and Civis Analytics joined as much as survey 1,180 U.S. buyers between Sept. 11 and 14.* After we final surveyed buyers, the week of March 23, we discovered that they had been planning to purchase the dip. Then the S&P 500 climbed 47%.
Now it appears like buyers are getting extra bearish. Solely 28% of buyers see the S&P 500 ending the 12 months above 3,000 factors, and a meager 7% see it over 3,500 factors. In the meantime, 61% are apprehensive shares are overpriced.
Nonetheless, buyers nonetheless see tech shares as having probably the most upside within the coming 12 months. They advised us the identical again in March, proper earlier than these shares soared (Amazon was $1,940 per share on the time; then it went as much as over $3,000).
What shares aren’t they touching? These of companies that depend on issues returning to a pre-COVID regular. By a 2 to 1 ratio, buyers see airways and cruise traces to have probably the most draw back—nonetheless. In March, they felt the identical.
It’s simple to see their perspective: Airways are nonetheless dropping tens of millions per day because the pandemic continues to hamper enterprise and leisure journey.
*Methodology: The Fortune–Civis Analytics ballot was performed amongst 1,180 buyers within the U.S. between Sept. 11 and 14. Traders should commerce monetary belongings like shares or bonds.
That is an excerpt from Fortune Analytics, an unique e-newsletter that Fortune Premium subscribers obtain as a perk of their subscription. The e-newsletter shares in-depth analysis on probably the most mentioned subjects within the enterprise world proper now. Our findings come from particular surveys we run and proprietary information we acquire and analyze. Sign up to get the full briefing in your inbox.